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- 9 Predictions for DTC in 2026
It’s the time of the year for predictions.
If there’s one constant in ecommerce, it’s change.
How people buy things online (and the best way to sell things) is constantly changing. And right now, it feels faster than ever.
Not as fast as some of the stuff you’ll see on LinkedIn:
Your website is not obsolete yet
SEO is not dead
DTC is not dead
Businesses will still hire humans
I’d advise you to steer clear of the “all or nothing” content that pervades the internet today (thanks to social media algorithms that pump up the most divisive opinions).
BUT - you do need to stay on top of things. You don’t want to cling on to outdated strategies that don’t work, while your competitors are moving faster and beating you to the punch.
No one knows for sure what’s going to happen, but after spending the last year talking to DTC leaders for the Retention Edge podcast, working with hundreds of successful brands at MobiLoud and writing these emails I’ve got a few ideas on how I think ecommerce could look a lot different this time next year.
Here are nine things to keep an eye on.
1. AI becomes the new Amazon (not the new Google)
Last year was the year AI commerce entered the scene. But for all the hype, it hasn’t become a major factor yet.
This year, that changes.
We’re going to see a significant jump in people shopping (and buying) directly from AI platforms like ChatGPT.
And the key thing I feel people get wrong: AI is not a Google competitor, so much as it’s an Amazon competitor.
People go to Amazon because they can get anything, find products from a thousand brands, compare and buy directly on the platform.
Now you can do that in GPT.
One thing to note - I’m not saying agentic commerce (automated agents doing the buying for you) is going to be huge. We’re a way from that yet.
But I don’t see anything stopping AI from catching on as the new “one stop stop” department store for online shopping.
2. Brands that ignore AI internally will fall behind
There’s consumer-facing AI.
And then there’s operational AI.
It’s quickly become an essential part of any business.
In 2026, you simply won’t be able to keep pace if you’re:
Manually handling ops tasks that should be automated
Running marketing, CX, and analytics without AI assistance
Not on the lookout for new ways to automate and improve backend ops
Speed and efficiency are the name of the game. If these aren’t your priority, you’re getting lapped by the competition.
3. Brands that over-automate with AI will quietly lose customers
Before you think #2 means you need to remove all your staff and have N8N workflows run your entire business…
There’s a very real danger to going too far the other way.
Especially in customer-facing areas like marketing and customer service.
We’re already seeing the slopification of social media. This is only going to get worse, and people are going to get better at spotting it on their timelines, and in brand communications.
There’s going to be a backlash. But the dangerous thing for brands is, it’s not going to be a loud backlash.
Customers will just:
Engage a little less
Buy a little less often
Slowly drift away
Most brands won’t even notice that they’ve killed their business by over-using AI until it’s too late.
Social commerce is the next big thing for ecommerce.
We’ve seen the introduction of TikTok Shop in 2025, where US sales increased 120% year-on-year.
This is the beginning, not the peak.
Expect TikTok Shop to get even bigger, as well as growth of live selling and shopping features in other platforms, like YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram and Facebook.
It’s the continuing of how social media is blurring lines between engagement, commerce and social interaction.
In 2026, this stops being a ‘marketing experiment’ and becomes a core part of any growing brand.
5. Ownership becomes the #1 competitive advantage
One common side-effect of the rise of AI & social commerce:
You don’t own the customer.
Just like Amazon:
Great for reach
Terrible for ownership (they own the relationship)
You need to play these games - there’s just too much upside.
But there’s also too much risk when you’re all in.
You cede a lot of control over your sales, your customer experience, and your margins.
The more ownership you have, the greater your advantage.
Better margins, better retention, more stability, less fluctuation based on how the algorithm is feeling that day.
Email, SMS, mobile apps, communities - these assets are going to become increasingly powerful.
6. Consumers trade value for trust
Everyone talks about value as one of the most important things for consumers right now.
I’m not sure, though - I think what people are really looking for is trust.
And it’s going to be in higher demand as the year goes on.
In a world of AI and deepfakes and staged UGC ads everywhere, it’s becoming harder to trust what you’re seeing and what you’re getting.
We’re going to see shoppers increasingly prioritize brands they can trust, and marketing that feels real, not engineered.
Authenticity wins.
7. All successful brands have comprehensive first-party and zero-party data
We’ve been seeing the gradual decline of third-party analytics for some time now.
Attribution is broken, and cross-channel data is dying. Most brands are flying blind.
Those who aren’t? They’re collecting data through first-party analytics and, more importantly, zero-party data that customers willingly share with them.
8. Creative strategy becomes the most valuable skill in DTC
AI made creative easy - anyone can put together words, images, even videos, for minimal cost.
What really matters now is the right strategy.
AI can do anything you ask it to, but it needs the right direction. That’s something you need a human for, someone with experience and taste.
Some brands understand this. They’ll have a fantastic 2026. Others won’t - they’ll try to automate everything, and end up with 100,000 ads that all fall flat.
9. Simple brands win
There is SO much noise right now. So many flashy toys and new channels and things demanding your attention.
That means there’s huge risk of drowning in complexity.
You won’t know what’s going on, you’ll be pivoting every month to a new priority, and your margins will be dragged down by the 100 different tools you signed up for.
Winning brands are those who can keep it simple.
It doesn’t mean ignoring the trends, it doesn’t mean saying no to AI or TikTok Shop or other new initiatives.
It means taking all the inputs and simplifying them - keeping what matters and discarding the rest.
Simple lets you move faster, adapt faster, it means you’re more profitable, clearer thinking, better alignment.
Simple wins.
A Simpler Way to Own Your Customer Relationships
If you don’t want to rely on a thousand algorithms to stay in front of your best buyers, you need a mobile app.
And here’s the thing - most mobile app providers add bloat to your business. They give you another storefront to manage, more plates to juggle.
MobiLoud doesn’t. It turns your existing site into a mobile app, fully synchronized with your website. You manage one codebase for web and app, and the app runs on autopilot.
An app is the most important channel most brands are missing. Make 2026 the year you take more control, and open up a direct line to your best customers.
Quick Hits
Shopify UCP
Shopify just dropped a major update (and a strong signal for AI commerce). They partnered with Google to launch the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) — an open standard that lets AI systems (think ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot) discover products, complete checkout, and handle things like discounts and loyalty right inside the chat interface.
That means brands (even ones not hosted on Shopify) can now sell directly through AI conversations without forcing customers back to a website. Probably the strongest sign yet that a large chunk of your transactions this year will take place outside your website, inside LLMs.
3 Things Brands Should Do to Rank in AI
As more people start searching, comparing and buying in AI, AI SEO is going to become one of the most important parts of your business.
This pos breaks down three things you need to do to a) show up and b) rank higher.
AI Commerce in Action
Brands are already showing up with AI-native shopping experiences.
This post shows fashion brand Pacsun’s products showing up in Perplexity, with customers able to buy directly from the LLM - no click to the website required.
How the Fastest-Growing Supplement Brands Operate
Great breakdown of how brands like Grüns and Ryze are having success right now - getting new customers into subscriptions and scaling in one of the more competitive categories in DTC.
That’s all for now.
I’ll be back in touch next week, with more on how successful brands are doing CX and retention right.
If there’s any topic you’d like to see us dive into, for either the newsletter or the podcast, just shoot me a message here.
Until next time,
Pietro and The Retention Edge Team
PS: want to boost retention, revenue and profitability? If so, launching your own app could be the best move you make this year.
See how: go to our website to get a preview of your app for free, or shoot me a DM on LinkedIn to talk about it.