Retention Edge E27: The End of Black Friday (And What's Replacing It)

Black Friday isn't a day anymore. It's barely even a weekend. And if you're still planning your Q4 around those four days, you might be leaving money on the table.

In the latest Retention Edge podcast, we sat down with Andy Isom, founder of an ecommerce agency helping brands sell on Amazon, Walmart, and TikTok Shop.

We dug into what's happening with holiday sales, and how the most important period of the year for ecommerce brands is evolving. The data he shared was eye-opening.

Let’s run through the key takeaways.

Black Friday is now a two-month season

The "Black Friday window" keeps expanding every year. What used to be a single day is now a two-month promotional blur.

• Amazon started pushing Black Friday deals on November 10th this year

• Walmart and others started even earlier. Some brands were running "holiday sales" before Halloween

• The deep 50-70% off discounts are disappearing. Most brands now run 20-30% off and call it Black Friday

• Sales don't stop on Cyber Monday - they roll straight through to Christmas

For operators, this should change how you think about Q4. It's less about nailing one big weekend and more about sustaining momentum across two months.

Amazon's October Prime Day is a strategic land grab

Amazon isn't running Fall Prime Day out of generosity. They're trying to capture holiday dollars before anyone else can.

• Every retailer - Amazon, Walmart, Target - competes for the same fixed holiday budget

• If Amazon gets consumers to shop in October, those dollars are gone by Black Friday

• This forces everyone else to start sales earlier too - the whole market is shifting

• Andy's take: "Whoever is the first retailer to get people to spend their money captures the prize"

If you wait until Black Friday to launch your promotion, you might already be too late.

The data proves it: October outperformed Black Friday

This wasn't theory. Andy shared real numbers from a client. Same product, same 30% discount, two different windows.

• October Prime Day: 10x daily sales average

• Black Friday week: 2-3x daily sales average

• The same offer performed 3-5x better in October than during "the biggest shopping weekend of the year"

• By Black Friday, customers had already spent their holiday budget

The early bird really does get the wallet.

Sales are up, but people aren't buying more

One stat from this year's BFCM that deserves attention.

• Revenue up ~7% compared to last year

• Units sold down 1%

• That's not growth. That's inflation

• Consumers are paying more for the same amount of stuff

• Factor in discounting, and margins are getting squeezed from both sides

Andy talked about whether we're hitting a ceiling on consumption. The shift toward experiences over things might not just be a social media trend; it could be structural.

TikTok Shop is a brand awareness play, not a sales channel

TikTok Shop has had a wild ride. Skepticism, massive growth, near-ban, and now a quiet resurgence. But the real insight is how it actually works.

• Direct ROI looks mediocre: send 100 samples to affiliates, get ~100 units sold (1:1)

• But then this happens: 60-70% increase in branded searches on Amazon within 4-6 weeks

• TikTok isn't where the sale happens. It's where the awareness happens

• Brands are seeing 2-4x Amazon sales growth from TikTok efforts

• The purchase happens on Amazon, where customers search for the brand they just saw

Brand awareness marketing isn't dead. It just moved platforms.

The playbook for Q4 is evolving fast. Earlier promotions. Longer windows. Smaller discounts. And channels that look unprofitable on their own but drive massive downstream results.

Worth thinking about as you plan for next year.

Catch the full conversation on YouTube or Spotify. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment if you found our convo helpful. This will help us put out more free deep-dives with ecom and CX experts.

I’ll back later this week with more to help you grow & scale your brand the right way.

— Pietro

PS - Want to see what your store would look like as a mobile app? Get a free preview here, or shoot me a DM on LinkedIn.