The Great Ecommerce Split

Mapping Out the Future of Online Shopping

Author

Pietro Saccomani
February 05, 2026

Ecommerce is changing at a crazy pace right now.

To be fair, it’s not just ecommerce. It’s everything. Our relationship with technology, how we interact online, how we work.

It’s natural that this evolution would extend to online shopping as well.

And from looking at a report our team just put together, I’m getting a clear picture of the direction ecommerce is heading.

Sorry, not direction. Directions.

There are two clear paths emerging for how people buy things online. If you’re running a DTC brand, it’s crucial you understand the way shopping behavior is changing - failing to do so risks you getting left behind.

Let's jump in.

We just published our annual shopping app report, and some trends jumped out.

Most notably was the explosive growth of live shopping app Whatnot, which hit $6 billion in GMV last year. That's double what they did in 2024. Downloads grew 541% year-over-year.

Here's the stat that got me: users spend an average of 80 minutes a day on Whatnot.

That's more than Netflix.

Meanwhile, Vinted (resale) grew revenue 36% and won Best Retail App in the UK. The US secondhand market hit $56 billion; up 14% from last year. And TikTok Shop is exploding with a discovery-first approach to ecommerce.

At the same time, what doesn’t show on the report (but I’m guessing it will for next year’s report) is the introduction of AI-native shopping.

As we’ve been discussing at length in the newsletter already, we’re going to see an increasingly large share of ecommerce coming through LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini - simply because it’s easier.

There are two distinct trends going on in ecom right now. If that continues (I believe it will), we’re going to see a couple of paths play out.

The Two Futures in Ecommerce

Path 1: Transactional Shopping

Think about the last time you needed something utilitarian. Laundry detergent. Phone charger. Replacement air filter.

Did you enjoy that shopping experience? Probably not. It’s just something you needed, and you went out and got it.

This kind of ecommerce is the kind that AI excels for.

In the near future - and I mean 2-3 years, not 10 - people will say "Hey ChatGPT, order me more dog food" and it'll happen. Just like that.

OpenAI is already building this. Google is building this. Amazon is building this.

For commodity purchases, storefronts are going to start to disappear. This is already starting to happen, with Instant Checkout and other AI-native experiences letting you purchase direct from brands, without going to their website.

I see no reason for this evolution to slow down.

Path 2: Engagement and Discovery-Driven Shopping

But here's what the trends show us: while transactional shopping is getting automated, discovery shopping is thriving.

Whatnot users aren't spending 80 minutes a day buying things they need. They're buying because it’s fun.

TikTok Shop isn't winning because it's more efficient. It's winning because scrolling IS the shopping experience. The discovery is the product.

Vinted isn't just a marketplace. It's a treasure hunt. Every session might surface something unique that nobody else will find.

The common thread? These platforms turned shopping from a task into an experience.

They’re built on engagement, not transactions.

And it’s not a new trend. Shein and Temu have been successful for multiple years now (ranking #2 and #3 on our Top Shopping Apps of 2025 report) with a user experience that blurs the line between ecommerce, social media and gaming.

Why This Matters for DTC Brands

Here’s where the risk comes in.

Most DTC brands are stuck in the middle.

They're not efficient enough to compete with AI-powered commodity shopping. And they're not engaging enough to compete with discovery platforms.

That's the worst place to be.

If you're selling a product people need to replenish (supplements, skincare, coffee) you're racing against AI automation. The moment someone can say "reorder my stuff" to their phone, your website becomes friction.

If you're selling a product people discover (fashion, home goods, gifts) you're competing against TikTok Shop and live shopping and resale apps that are infinitely more entertaining than your product grid.

Neither path is easy. But pretending you can stay in the middle is worse.

How to Win in Each Path

Here’s what I'm seeing from brands that get this right.

For Transactional Categories (Replenishment, Commodities)

Win on retention infrastructure, not acquisition.

If AI is going to own the first purchase, you need to own everything after. That means:

  • Subscriptions that actually work (and are easy to manage)

  • Product experiences that create genuine preference

  • A mobile app that becomes the default reorder button (and makes it easier than going to ChatGPT)

The goal: when someone tells ChatGPT to reorder, your brand is what they ask for by name.

Think about how people say "order me an Uber" not "order me a rideshare." That's brand as verb. That's what you need.

For Discovery Categories (Fashion, Lifestyle, Gifts)

Win on experience, not efficiency.

You're not competing on price or speed. You're competing on engagement.

  • Create content that people actually want to consume

  • Build community around your brand, not just transactions

  • Make the shopping experience itself entertaining

Whatnot's 80-minute sessions aren't an accident. They designed for engagement.

Maybe you’re not going to pivot your DTC fashion brand into a live shopping resale marketplace.

But you need to make your brand more than just a collection of products.

Your website or app needs to be somewhere that people go for 10 minutes just for fun.

Men’s skincare brand MASC is a great example of this. Their website (and app) features shoppable videos that make it feel more like Instagram or TikTok than a generic DTC brand website.

This is the future for non-transactional categories.

Three Things to Do This Quarter

I'll keep this practical.

1. Pick (or understand) your lane

Are you a replenishment brand or a discovery brand? Most products lean one direction. Figure out which one you are and commit.

You can't optimize for AI-powered reordering AND entertaining discovery experiences. They require different everything.

2. Audit your experience for your lane

If you're replenishment: How easy is it to reorder? Is your subscription actually good? Do customers think of you by name when they need your category?

If you're discovery: How much time do people spend with your brand? Is your content worth consuming? Would anyone describe shopping with you as "fun"?

3. Build assets that compound

For replenishment brands: a mobile app with one-tap reordering, saved preferences, and push notifications that actually drive action.

For discovery brands: a content engine and community that people return to even when they're not buying.

Both of these compound over time. Being wholly reliant on putting $1 into Meta and getting $1.50 back doesn’t.

The Retention Channel That Works for Both

Whether you're building for replenishment or discovery, a mobile app solves a real problem.

For replenishment brands: your app becomes the default reorder button. Push notifications for replenishment timing. One-tap purchasing. You're not competing with AI - because you make it easier than AI.

For discovery brands: your app is owned real estate for content and community. No algorithm deciding who sees what. Direct access to your most engaged customers.

Either way, it's infrastructure that compounds - and an asset you own. And MobiLoud is the easiest way to launch a mobile app that works, and that looks and feels like your brand; not a template.

Get a free preview of your app → or DM me on LinkedIn to set up a time to chat.

Quick Hits

OpenAI is launching ads in ChatGPT with a $60 CPM and $200K minimum commitment, with testing starting this month. It shows crazy confidence from OpenAI - especially when you’re also getting a fraction of the data you get from Meta and Google.

Beauty sales on TikTok Shop grew 60% YoY, with one product selling per second on average. The quote that says it all: "Users don't know what product they want to buy yet. They come to discover." Discovery shopping isn't just a niche; it's eating market share from incumbents.

Semrush found that 75% of ChatGPT's top product recommendations come from Google Shopping's top 3 results. If you're worried about AI shopping, your Google Shopping feed optimization just became a lot more important.

45% of consumers now use AI during their buying journeys. But here's the tension: 80% of Gen Z shoppers expect personalized experiences. AI can help with transactions. It can't replace the feeling of being seen by a brand.

Transaction volume on premium urban retail corridors jumped 82% YoY. Brands like Uniqlo are buying buildings outright ($350M for Fifth Avenue space). Physical retail isn't dying - it's becoming the experience layer that digital can't replicate.

That’s all for now.

I’ll be back in touch next week, with more on how successful brands are doing CX and retention right.

If there’s any topic you’d like to see us dive into, for either the newsletter or the podcast, just shoot me a message here.

Until next time,

Pietro and The Retention Edge Team

PS: want to boost retention, revenue and profit this year? See how: go to our website to get a preview of your app for free, or shoot me a DM on LinkedIn to talk about it.