Key statistics
- 42% of US consumers had used AI assistants for online shopping by July 2026, including 56% of Gen Z and 23% of baby boomers. Adobe
- Visitors referred to US retail sites by AI tools converted 60% better than other traffic in July 2026, and generated 53% more revenue per visit. Adobe
- Generative AI tools drove a 693.4% increase in traffic to US retail sites over the 2025 holiday season. Adobe
- AI and agents drove $262 billion of global online holiday sales in 2025, 20% of the total, up from $229 billion (19%) in 2024. Salesforce
- Only 23% of US consumers trust generative AI to handle payments on their behalf, although 72% have used an AI assistant. Visa
- Agentic shoppers could account for $190 billion to $385 billion of US ecommerce spending by 2030, a 10% to 20% share. Morgan Stanley
A growing share of shopping journeys now start in a conversation. Someone asks ChatGPT, Gemini or a retailer's assistant to compare running shoes or find a gift under $50, then clicks through to the store that fits.
That shift is still early, and the numbers can be hard to read. Traffic from AI tools is growing at triple-digit rates from a small base, vendors measure "AI influence" in different ways, and forecasts for agentic commerce span hundreds of billions of dollars.
Below, we've gathered the most useful current statistics on AI in ecommerce, from how many shoppers use it to how those visitors behave and what the forecasts actually measure.
How many shoppers use AI to shop?
The most recent large survey comes from Adobe, which asked more than 5,000 US consumers in July 2026. 42% said they had used AI assistants for online shopping, up four points since March. Of those, 83% said it improved their shopping experience.
Use is highest among younger shoppers, but it isn't limited to them. Nearly a quarter of baby boomers have tried it:
US consumers who have used AI assistants for online shopping, July 2026
Other surveys land in a similar range, depending on how they word the question. Bain's November 2025 research found that 30% to 45% of US consumers use generative AI for product research and comparison. Morgan Stanley estimates that roughly 23% of Americans bought something via AI in the past month.
The common thread is that AI is mostly a research tool for now. Shoppers use it to narrow their options, then visit a store to check the details. In Adobe's survey, 66% said they visit a brand's own website to verify an AI recommendation.
How much traffic does AI send to online stores?
AI referrals are one of the fastest-growing sources of ecommerce traffic. According to Adobe's analysis of US retail sites, generative AI tools drove a 693.4% increase in traffic to retail sites over the 2025 holiday season.
693.4%
Growth in traffic from generative AI tools to US retail sites, 2025 holiday season
89%
Year-over-year growth in AI traffic to US retail sites during Prime Day 2026
13x
Year-over-year growth in AI-referred orders on Shopify stores, Q1 2026
Adobe also tracks how AI's share of visits to US retail sites has grown. By August 2026, it was up 1,709% on its October 2024 level, with the steepest climb during 2025:
Growth in AI's share of visits to US retail sites
Change since October 2024
Show the data
| Oct 2024 | 0% |
|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | 53% |
| Dec 2024 | 62% |
| Jan 2025 | 106% |
| Feb 2025 | 183% |
| Mar 2025 | 225% |
| Apr 2025 | 431% |
| May 2025 | 500% |
| Jun 2025 | 640% |
| Jul 2025 | 715% |
| Aug 2025 | 698% |
| Sep 2025 | 998% |
| Oct 2025 | 1,197% |
| Nov 2025 | 1,233% |
| Dec 2025 | 1,151% |
| Jan 2026 | 1,261% |
| Feb 2026 | 1,173% |
| Mar 2026 | 1,099% |
| Apr 2026 | 1,173% |
| May 2026 | 1,324% |
| Jun 2026 | 1,355% |
| Jul 2026 | 1,219% |
| Aug 2026 | 1,709% |
Those growth rates start from a very small base. Bain found that AI accounts for up to 25% of referral traffic for some retailers, but still less than 1% of total traffic. Organic search, email, paid media and direct visits still bring in far more shoppers.
Do AI-referred shoppers convert better?
They do now, though that's a recent change. During Prime Day 2025, visitors arriving from AI tools converted 23% worse than other traffic. By the 2025 holiday season, they were converting better, and the gap has widened since:
| Period | AI-referred visitors' conversion compared with other traffic | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Prime Day 2025 | 23% lower | Adobe |
| 2025 holiday season | 31% higher | Adobe |
| Prime Day 2026 | 40% higher | Adobe |
| July 2026 | 60% higher | Adobe |
The improvement goes beyond conversion. In July 2026, AI-referred visitors to US retail sites stayed longer, viewed more pages and added more to their carts than visitors from other channels:
How AI-referred retail visitors compared with other traffic, July 2026
Difference from non-AI visitors
They were also 34% less likely to bounce. Shopify's own data points the same way. In Q1 2026, AI-referred sessions on Shopify stores converted at nearly 50% higher rates than organic search, with 14% higher average order values.
A likely explanation is that these shoppers have already done their research. By the time they click through, they've compared options in the chat and arrive closer to a decision. That makes AI referrals valuable, but it also means the visit is often a final check. Your product pages need to confirm what the assistant said, with accurate specifications, prices and availability.
How much ecommerce revenue does AI influence?
Salesforce measures AI's influence across the retailers on its commerce platform. By its measure, AI and agents drove $262 billion of global online holiday sales in 2025, or 20% of the $1.29 trillion total:
$262B
Global online holiday sales driven by AI and agents in 2025, 20% of the total
$229B
The same measure for the 2024 holiday season, 19% of the total
That figure covers far more than chatbot referrals. Salesforce counts sales influenced by AI features such as personalized recommendations, using its own attribution. It's best read as a sign of how widely AI is built into the shopping experience, rather than a count of purchases made by AI.
Retailers are adding more of it. In Deloitte's survey of 330 global retail executives, nearly 68% expect to deploy agentic AI for key operational and enterprise activities within 12 to 24 months. The same survey found that 81% believe generative AI will weaken brand loyalty by 2027.
The financial payoff is still uneven across industries. In McKinsey's State of AI 2026 survey, 40% of respondents from large organizations reported scaling AI agents, up from 27% a year earlier. But only 37% of all respondents attributed any EBIT impact to AI.
Will shoppers let AI buy for them?
Using AI to research a purchase is one thing. Letting an agent choose and pay is another, and most shoppers aren't there yet.
Accenture's 2026 Consumer Pulse survey of 25,590 consumers in 16 countries shows how quickly willingness falls as an agent takes on more of the decision:
Consumers willing to hand shopping tasks to an AI agent, 2026
Payment is the sticking point. In a Harris Poll survey of 2,065 US adults for Visa, 72% had used an AI assistant, but only 23% trusted generative AI to handle payment transactions on their behalf. Bain found that half of consumers aren't comfortable letting AI handle a purchase from start to finish.
The platforms have adjusted too. When OpenAI launched Instant Checkout in ChatGPT, shoppers could buy without leaving the chat. In March 2026, it changed course, letting merchants use their own checkout experiences while it focused on product discovery.
The same caution applies to customer service. In a Gartner survey of 3,566 customers, 87% said companies using generative AI for service must provide a way to reach a human agent.
How big could agentic commerce get?
Agentic commerce means AI agents that research, choose and complete purchases on a shopper's behalf. The major forecasts all expect it to grow quickly, but they measure different things:
| Forecast | 2030 estimate | What it counts |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $190B to $385B, 10% to 20% of US ecommerce | Spending by agentic shoppers |
| Bain | $300B to $500B, 15% to 25% of US ecommerce | Purchases initiated, influenced or completed by AI agents |
| McKinsey | $900B to $1T of US B2C retail; $3T to $5T globally | Revenue orchestrated by agentic commerce |
The broader the definition, the bigger the number. McKinsey's figure counts revenue that AI agents shape along the way, while Morgan Stanley's is closer to the spending agents control directly.
Morgan Stanley's base case also shows how gradual the early years are likely to be. It puts agentic shoppers at about 1% of US ecommerce spending in 2026, rising to 10% by 2030:
Agentic shoppers' share of US ecommerce spending, base case
Forecast; the bull case reaches 20% by 2030
Show the data
| 2026 | 1% |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 2% |
| 2028 | 4% |
| 2029 | 7% |
| 2030 | 10% |
For context, ecommerce as a whole accounted for 17.1% of US retail sales in Q2 2026. Even the base case would make agentic shopping a meaningful channel within a few years, without replacing the way most people shop today.
What these numbers mean for ecommerce brands
AI is already part of how many customers find and compare products, even if it brings in a small share of your visits today. A few practical steps follow from the data.
Measure AI referrals separately. Visits from ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini and Copilot are easy to lose inside general referral traffic. Grouping them lets you see how they convert and which products they land on.
Make product information easy to verify. AI-referred shoppers often arrive ready to buy, but they come to check the details. Clear specifications, accurate stock levels, shipping costs and reviews help that final check succeed.
Keep product data accurate everywhere. Assistants draw on product feeds, marketplaces, reviews and your own site. Inconsistent prices or descriptions make it harder for them to recommend you, and harder for shoppers to trust what they find.
Keep the rest of the journey strong. Most of your customers still arrive through search, email, social and direct visits, and most purchases still finish on your own checkout. AI changes where some journeys begin, while the work of earning a repeat purchase stays with you.
Final thoughts
The clearest pattern in the data is that shoppers have embraced AI for research much faster than for buying. Traffic and usage are rising quickly, AI-referred visitors are converting well, and most people still want to make the final decision and payment themselves.
That gives brands time to prepare. The stores that benefit most will be the ones that are easy for an assistant to understand and easy for a shopper to trust once they arrive.
